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Thursday, August 17, 2006

Why Lamont Won’t Win in Connecticut:

Connecticut is rich in Democratic presence. Conservatives, and hawks especially, are in the minority there. But the majority of voters there are not Democrats, but are actually registered as independents. Independents exceed both Democrats and Republicans, and rival their numbers when the two are taken in aggregate. And party affiliation is required for the primary season. Thus, Independents vote for in general election, and not in the primary. Ned Lamont, who defeated Joe Lieberman last week, did so by a wafer thin margin of 4 percentage points. But how does Lamont fare with Republican and, more importantly, Independent voters?

According to Quinnipiac:

Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent.

Those are huge margins, suggesting that Lamont needs somehow to appeal to those voters. However, an agenda of “I’m not affiliated with Bush like my opponent is” and “let’s bring our troops home now” without much else to offer isn’t going to sway anyone outside the sphere of influence of Kos and the like. Unless something major happens between now and November, Senator Lieberman will remain Senator Lieberman, and Ned Lamont will be a historical footnote.


.: posted by Dave 8:21 AM

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