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Thursday, August 17, 2006

My previous post noted why I don’t believe Ned Lamont will prevail in the Connecticut general election for United States Senator. I’d like to elaborate on another point – Ned Lamont’s candidacy might actually hurt the cause of the Democratic Party.

Imagine that the left decided to target all moderate Democratic candidates in other states, such as Nebraska’s Ben Nelson. Let’s suppose also that a more liberal candidate was able to win in the primaries in those states. Let’s also then suppose that those candidates, detecting the anti-war schism in their party, decided to also run as independents, just like Joe Lieberman is doing. Unless the election is being held for an office in a generally liberal state like Massachusetts or Oregon, the odds are that the independent incumbent would succeed in retaining their seat. This is, of course, a supposition on my part, but my gut feeling is that the moderate electorate would see through the efforts of the left and vote for the more moderate incumbent.

If these assumptions held true, the Democrats could actually lose several seats in Congress even though Democratic incumbents would remain in office. Would that affect the party caucuses? It depends. Loyalty only holds true for so long. Would you vote as a bloc with a party that shunned you during the election season? I’m not so sure every candidate would. In fact, it would seem being an independent incumbent would be license to actually think for oneself and vote based on some set of principles instead of on allegiance to a group. That would be great for America, but terrible for the Democratic Party.

So maybe the best thing that could happen would be for the Kossacks to infiltrate the Democrats, divide them, and purge themselves of politicians like Joe Lieberman. Maybe we will even see the advent of a legitimate third party. Whatever happens in November though, if the Democrats continue to move to the left, and if moderates continue their exodus from the party, it will definitely hurt the Democrats in the long term.


.: posted by Dave 8:40 AM

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